NHL Trade Grades: Why the Devils were able to acquire P.K. Subban without breaking the bank

The trade New Jersey Devils receive defenseman P.K. Subban Nashville Predators receive Steven Santini, Jeremy Davies, a 2019 second-round pick and 2020 second-round pick New Jersey Devils: A-minus Subban is exactly what the Devils needed. They have their star winger in Taylor Hall. They have their future franchise centerman in Jack Hughes. Now, they have

The trade

New Jersey Devils receive defenseman P.K. Subban

Nashville Predators receive Steven Santini, Jeremy Davies, a 2019 second-round pick and 2020 second-round pick

New Jersey Devils: A-minus

Subban is exactly what the Devils needed. They have their star winger in Taylor Hall. They have their future franchise centerman in Jack Hughes. Now, they have the star, offensive-anchor of their defense. And they were able to pull it off without breaking the bank. At least, not in terms of assets given up. But there was certainly a cost.

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A big part of this deal is New Jersey paying full freight on Subban’s contract, costing them $9 million for the next three seasons. They have the space and ability to take that on and that wasn’t the case for a lot of other destinations for Subban, effectively limiting the market.

Another thing that scared off potentially interested teams is the perception he’s declining as a player on the ice as he enters his 30s. It showed up in his point production – he averaged 0.49 points per game last season, the lowest since he was 22. According to data from Micah Blake McCurdy, he’s also not driving play as much as he used to.

PK Subban (to New Jersey) doesn’t drive play much if at all; his reputation is almost entirely based on (inarguably top-pair) point production. pic.twitter.com/kymToDaneU

— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) June 22, 2019

Talent evaluators have also noted a decline in Subban’s skating.

“Quite a bit,” texted an NHL executive on Saturday.

Said one coach: “Can’t skate.”

And an NHL scout added: “I think his game has fallen off.”

Normally, with a top pair defenseman, coaches try to keep their top offensive players away from them in terms of matchups. That’s not necessarily the case with Subban, a player who some teams aren’t too concerned about avoiding with their top players.

So when you’re wondering why the Devils were able to add one of the league’s biggest superstars without including a blue-chip prospect or even a first-round pick, all of that factors in. With that said, even Subban on the decline is a very valuable player. Maybe not a $9 million per season player, with his salary preventing this from being a pure ‘A,’ but certainly a game-changer who is going to make the Devils an exciting, high-octane team. And internally, the Devils believe his competitiveness is “off the charts,” a trait that can help make up for some of the other concerns that surround him. While you hear that the attention Subban generates wears thin on his coaches and teammates at times, there’s no denying how active he is in the community, helping promote the game and adored by fans. For a team like New Jersey, that’s a potentially valuable part of the equation. And if this move convinces Taylor Hall (UFA Class of 2020) to stick around, even better.

Nashville Predators: C-plus

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This was essentially a salary dump.

“Cap move for Nashville,” texted one executive on Saturday. “Gets them in on Duchene now.”

And while the public perception of the return for Subban may be that the Predators were fleeced, there were NHL sources who were impressed Nashville was able to move Subban without retaining any of his salary.

“Nashville did fairly well,” said one executive.

“I am surprised they were able to trade him,” said another NHL source.

The question is  at what cost to the on-ice product? There’s no question this is a big hit to the Nashville defense. According to a source, the Predators have emerged as the front-runner to land Matt Duchene, and that’s all fine and good if you land Duchene. But now there’s pressure to make that happen and certainly gives leverage to the player because there will be a ton of interest in Duchene when he’s able to start talking to other teams on Sunday.

As for the players received, the Predators are getting a bottom pair defenseman in Santini. “Good defender, simple defenseman,” texted one coach. “Average puck skills.”

Jeremy Davies was a seventh-round pick in 2016 and has developed into a point-per-game defenseman for Northeastern.

The Athletic’s Corey Pronman said of Davies: “He’s a very smart player. He moves pucks very well. He was a top player in college hockey last season. His concerns are his size, he’s 5-foot-11. He’s not really a great skater. There’re concerns about if he can handle the NHL speed. He’s going to need some time in the American League. He’s a B-level prospect.”

(Top photo: Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports)

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